New climate scenarios for evidence-based climate action on Aruba, Curacao, and Sint Maarten

December 16, 2025 7:30 pm

​Philipsburg, Sint Maarten- On December 16 2025, the International Panel on Deltas and Coastal Areas (IPDC), on behalf of partner organisations, including the Ministry of VROMI (Public Housing, Spatial Planning Environment & Infrastructure) announced the publication of new climate scenarios for Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten. Based on scientific data, the scenarios have been designed for 2050 and 2100, and serve to inspire the design of climate adaptation measures and development of national climate adaptation plans. The publication is the result of a unique collaboration between the national meteorological services of Aruba, Curaçao, Sint Maarten, and The Netherlands.

The scenarios are part of the IPDC’s latest project in the Dutch Caribbean, focused on climate scenarios and digitisation. They will be presented to local authorities in upcoming workshops in Aruba, Curaçao and Sint Maarten. The project also digitizes historical meteorological data, making past weather information easier to access and use in future climate research.

Background 
In recent decades, the world has experienced changes in global mean temperatures driven by increased greenhouse gas emissions. These changes impact the lives of people worldwide, including populations on small islands such as Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten. It is therefore crucial to understand what further climate change may be expected in the remainder of this century. 

What will the climate of Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten look like in 2050 and 2100? 
Climate scenarios have been developed for 2050 and 2100. They have been specifically tailored to the unique local circumstances of Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten. The climate scenarios show how key climate factors may change, such as temperature, windspeed, rainfall and sea water level. 

Due to uncertainty in future global climate change, the scenarios present possible outcomes based on key assumptions for global emissions (such as low, mid and high global emissions) and for regional rainfall (such as a ‘dry’ or a ‘wet’ future). The scenarios do not give probabilities, but the range helps decision-makers see possible risks and plan ahead. The scenarios are presented in a technical report and a user report. The user report explains the main findings in clear language and figures, so more people can use the results. They also support climate adaptation planning and contribute to the National Adaptation Strategies of Aruba, Curaçao and Sint Maarten.

​Temperatures set to rise 
The climate scenarios show that temperatures will continue to rise. In global high-emission scenarios, the average annual temperatures could increase by up to +1.3 degrees Celsius by around 2050, and up to +3.3 degrees Celsius by around 2100. In this scenario, the coldest months, December to February, will be warmer than the current warmest months. On the other hand, in global low-emission scenarios the temperature increase can be up to +0.7 degrees Celsius by 2100. This difference shows the major impact of global greenhouse gas emissions on our local climate.

Rainfall and drought
Besides temperature change, the scenarios indicate that there may be less rainfall in the future. In the most severe scenarios, average rainfall could be reduced by half by the end of the century compared to today. The more favorable scenarios show only minor drying, and in the case of Sint Maarten, some scenarios even project a slight rainfall increase. This drying trend may result in a longer dry season and less rainfall during the rainy season.

A rising sea level
In the long term, beyond 2100, sea levels driven by global ice melt and other factors could certainly rise by more than 1 meter, even if greenhouse gas emissions would stop to increasing now. Although the sea level rise in the various scenarios will be close together around 2050, there can be strong differences by 2100. This difference once again illustrates the major impact of global greenhouse gas emissions on our local environment.

A call for climate action
The new climate scenarios are not a call to despair but a call to climate action. The range of scenario outputs illustrates the relevance for small islands such as Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten of limiting worldwide greenhouse gas emissions. At the local level, the output range provides valuable insights into the possible local effects of climate change and helps decision-makers explore different future conditions before they choose measures or investments. These solutions will be addressed in the National Adaptation Strategies for Aruba, Curaçao and Sint Maarten which are already under development.

Partners 
The scenarios were developed by the IPDC and its partner organisations: the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Departamento Meteorlogico Aruba (DMA), Meteorological Department Curaçao (MDC), Meteorological Department Sint Maarten (MDS) as well as the Governments of Aruba, Curaçao and Sint Maarten. The IPDC is an initiative funded by the Government of the Netherlands.

For more information or to download the new publications, please visit: https://ipdc-climate-action.org/resources/new-climate-scenarios-for-evidence-based-climate-action-on-aruba-curacao-and-sint-maarten/​